Can the Solana (SOL) Price Rally to $200 Despite Flat Funding Rates?

Key Insights:

• Solana price forms bullish cup-and-handle near $150 after a flat week.
• Net exchange outflows rise, suggesting accumulation is underway.
• SOL price funding rate remains low, hinting at caution in leveraged bets.

The Solana (SOL) price hasn’t done much in recent weeks; barely a 2% move last week and just 10% up year-to-date. But zoom out, and things start to look different. Solana appears to be rounding off a classic cup-and-handle pattern that’s been quietly developing for months.

That setup, now curling along the $150 range, could be the launchpad bulls have been waiting for. The key is whether this pattern breakout can hold and, more importantly, whether on-chain sentiment is lining up with it.

Solana Exchange Outflows Show Accumulation Resuming

On-chain exchange flow data shows something quietly bullish: outflows of SOL from spot exchanges have started to pick up again. Exchange net flows turned increasingly negative over the past few weeks, which typically signals reduced sell pressure.

That means wallets are pulling coins away from centralized exchanges, often interpreted as accumulation by larger holders or long-term investors.

This adds some weight to the idea that the $150 range isn’t just support from a chart perspective; it’s where buyers are stepping in.

Daily Active Addresses Surge to Highest in 2025

At the same time, Solana is witnessing a surprising spike in network activity. The number of daily active addresses has surged past 14.49 million, the highest level recorded so far in 2025. That’s not a minor uptick. This kind of usage spike usually comes either ahead of or alongside a sustained price rally.

If the cup-and-handle structure holds and breaks higher, the jump in network activity could support a much larger SOL price run. In short, there’s now a solid fundamental reason to believe the chart isn’t lying.

Funding Rates Hint Traders Are Still Nervous

Despite these signs, the Solana price funding rate remains muted. According to Coinglass, the open interest (OI)-weighted funding rate on SOL perpetual futures has stayed near or below 0% since mid-June. That’s a sign that speculators are hesitant to pile into leveraged long positions — or are actively shorting rallies.

Funding rate is the fee paid between long and short positions in perpetual futures. A negative or flat rate means short traders dominate or that longs are cautious, both of which can act as contrarian indicators.

If the SOL price can rally while funding remains subdued, it could trigger a short squeeze and attract momentum traders chasing the breakout.

Solana Price Faces Next Major Resistance at $194

Technically, the Solana price has now cleared the upper handle of its continued pennant pattern. This pattern, often undecided, is prone to pullbacks. Traders need to keep a close eye on the upper trendline, which aligns with $159, and any pullback can slow down the surging bullishness.

The current move faces resistance around $163.82, the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Beyond that, the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $194.25 is the next major test. A clean break above could put the Solana price on a fast track to $215 or even the psychological $250 zone.

Support sits around $141.50, with a breakdown below that invalidating the bullish case. But for now, the SOL price is hugging the breakout line, and the bulls have the structure on their side.

Solana hasn’t exploded yet. But it’s setting up for something bigger. With active users surging, tokens quietly leaving exchanges, and price structure finally turning in favor of bulls, this breakout attempt looks far more serious than previous fakes.

If the SOL price can ride this setup above resistance, there’s a real shot at a move toward $200 and beyond, with or without trader confidence.