Burnes’ Season-Ending Injury Complicates Arizona’s Future

The Arizona Diamondbacks committed $210 million to Corbin Burnes last winter to strengthen their rotation in the present and provide an anchor for a staff that faces a possible major reconstruction in the offseason.

The best-laid plans dissolved Friday, when Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo relayed the devastating new that Burnes will require season-ending Tommy John surgery on his right elbow.

Burnes motioned to the dugout after throwing a pitch in the fifth inning of a start against Washington last Sunday and was removed after lip-readers could see him mouth, “My elbow’s gone. It’s dead,” when a trainer visited the mound.

Burnes opted for the surgery after receiving a second opinion from elbow specialist Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who has repaired Shohei Ohtani’s elbow, among others. The procedure is scheduled for next week.

The standard timeline for recovery from the surgery is considered to be about 12 months, although Ohtani has yet to pitch this season after undergoing his procedure in September, 2023.

In a worst-case scenario, Burnes has thrown his last pitch for the Diamondbacks, who saw him as a integral piece in their pursuit of the big-money Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West.

Burnes signed a six-year, $210 million contract that includes an opt-out after the 2026 season as the D-backs bumped their payroll to a record $181 million. He received a $10 million signing bonus and will make $30 million in salary this season and $20 million in 2026.

While Burnes’ injury complicates matters and may diminish his value if he opts out, agent Scott Boras often negotiates an opt-out clause into the contract of his high-tier free agents in order to return the players to the market as quickly as possible.

Burnes was 3-2 with a 2.66 ERA in 11 starts this season, with 63 strikeouts in 64 1-3 innings. He skipped a scheduled May 5 start after taking a cortisone shot to treat right shoulder inflammation, a condition he said felt similar to “dead arm” he has felt in previous spring trainings.

There is no evidence to suggest the injuries are related. Burnes was 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA in five starts since, although his velocity was down about one mph on his cut and two-seam fastballs throughout the season.

Burnes’ Loss Clouds Future of the Rotation

Even before Burnes’ injury, the Diamondbacks faced questions about what the 2026 rotation would look like since top starters Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are eligible for free agency this winter and are likely to test the market.

Now, trading Gallen and Kelly at the deadline could be options if the team cannot right itself in time to challenge the Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres in the division and wild-card races.

Gallen was obtained in a 2019 trade-deadline deal with Miami that sent Jazz Chisholm to the Marlins during the Diamondbacks’ last rebuild.

Gallen and Kelly have been rotation stalwarts since Kelly returned from Korea in 2019, and together with then-rookie Brandon Pfaadt played key roles in the D-backs’ run to the 2023 World Series.

Burnes and Pfaadt, who signed a five-year, $45 million contract extension at the start of the season, were seen as the potential front men in the rotation in the event both Gallen (a Boras client) and Kelly opted to test the market. Ryne Nelson would join the rotation full-time.

Both Boras and Kelly could command significant raises after playing recently on team-friendly deals. Gallen will make $13.5 million this season and Kelly will make $8.5 million in the second year of a two-year contract.

Both have made it clear that they are not anxious to leave but at the same time must consider their future. Kelly, especially, since he has played under team-friendly contracts since his return from Korea.

Kelly and Burnes have been the best of the D-backs’ rotation this season, while Gallen (4-7, 5.13 ERA) and Pfaadt (7-4, 5.51) have been up-and-down. Gallen leads the NL in walks, a severe outlier based on his career numbers.

Free Agent Pitching Injuries a Disturbing Trend

Burnes is the third of Arizona’s recent big-money signs to address the starting rotation to suffer a serious arm injury.

Eduardo Rodriguez, who signed a four-year, $80 million free agent deal before the 2024 season, made only 10 starts that year after suffering a shoulder injury in spring training. He returned Friday after missing time with shoulder inflammation.

When Rodriguez went down, the D-backs quickly moved to sign free agent Jordan Montgomery to a one-year, $25 million contract that included a player option for 2025.

Montgomery had a 6.23 ERA in 2024 and, after exercising his $22.5 million option to return, suffered an elbow injury that required season-ending Tommy John surgery this spring.

At the start of the decade, Madison Bumgarner signed a five-year, $85 million contract prior to the 2020 season that did not work out. Bumgarner missed much of the 2020 season with a back injury and was 15-32 with a 5.23 ERA in four seasons before being released after four starts in 2023.