STH NUPL Signals Room to Run; $137K BTC May Trigger Profit-Taking

Key Insights:

• BTC short-term holders show only 13% NUPL, well below euphoria levels seen at previous peaks.
• Crypto market cap reached a new all-time high of $3.83T, according to CoinMarketCap.
• Exchange balances drop while first-time buyers rise, showing ongoing demand despite muted retail sentiment.

At press time, BTC trades around $118,286, according to CoinMarketCap. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market has reached a new all-time high with a $3.83 trillion valuation. Despite these milestones, short-term holders’ Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH NUPL) remains moderate at 13%.

CryptoQuant data reveals that STH NUPL levels above 25% have previously triggered mass profit-taking, slowing upward price momentum. The current level stands well below the 16% seen at the last all-time high, suggesting no signs of overheating. For this metric to hit 25%, BTC must rise above $137,000, signaling a potential local top.

This suggests BTC may still have upward room before reaching a historically risky level. As speculative euphoria remains subdued, short-term holders are not aggressively selling. This calm behavior supports the ongoing price strength without warning signs of immediate correction.

Fundamentals Show Strong Inflows and Supply Constriction

Additionally, data from Glassnode confirms a 2.86% rise in supply held by first-time BTC buyers over the past two weeks. This trend reflects consistent capital inflows into the market, which likely support the recent price breakout. Buyer conviction remains strong even as BTC’s price growth slows slightly.

In addition, exchange supply continues to fall, with BTC balances now at 14.5%, per Leon Waidmann’s post referencing Glassnode. This signals ongoing accumulation and a lack of immediate selling pressure from investors. Ethereum’s exchange balance, by contrast, is slightly lower at 13.4%.

Meanwhile, Google Trends data from CryptoRank shows declining public interest despite the recent price high, highlighting a lack of retail-driven mania. Historical cycles indicate peaks often coincide with high search volumes, which is not the case now. This supports the thesis that BTC has not yet entered a speculative blow-off top.

Market-wide, 24-hour volume stands at $191.1 billion, as per CoinMarketCap. BTC’s circulating supply remains at 19.89M, very close to its max cap. With reduced exchange balances and strong buyer activity, the rally appears structurally supported—though a break above $137K could quickly change sentiment.