The 1995 Srebrenica Genocide And The Risk Of Further Atrocities Now

July 11, 2025, marks the 3oth anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide, the worst atrocity on European soil since the Second World War. The Srebrenica genocide refers to a massacre when, in July 1995, the Bosnian Serb army overran Srebrenica, which was previously declared a safe area by the U.N. Security Council, and brutally murdered thousands of men and teenagers, and expelled between 20,000 and 30,000 people (women, children, and older persons) from the town. The brutal killing of Bosnian Muslims in Srebrenica by the army of Republika Srpska was recognized as an act of genocide by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) as well as the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). The ICTY and its legal successor, the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT), tried 20 individuals for crimes committed in Srebrenica in July 1995. A total of 16 persons, including high-level officials such as Radislav Krstić, Ratko Mladić, and Radovan Karadžić, were convicted for crimes committed in Srebrenica.

July 11 was designated by the U.N. General Assembly as the U.N. International Day of Reflection and Commemoration of the 1995 Genocide in Srebrenica. The resolution establishing the U.N. day, sponsored by Germany and Rwanda, requested the U.N. Secretary-General to establish an outreach program entitled “The Srebrenica Genocide and the United Nations”, starting its activities with preparations for the 30th anniversary in 2025. It further condemned any denial of the Srebrenica genocide as a historical event, and urged Member States to preserve the established facts, including through their educational systems by developing appropriate programs, also in remembrance, towards preventing denial and distortion, and the occurrence of genocides in the future.

Marking the 30th anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide, U.N. Secretary General António Guterres stressed: “We remember the victims and honor the courage of the survivors – including the Mothers of Srebrenica, whose tireless pursuit of justice ensured that the genocide was recognized in both law and history. This day is not only a moment of reflection. It is a call to vigilance and action.” He further added: “At a time when hate speech, denial and division are gaining ground, we must stand firm for truth and justice. We must detect early warning signs and respond before violence takes hold. We must respect international law, defend human rights, uphold the dignity of every individual, and invest in reconciliation and peace.”

Some three decades after the genocide in Srebrenica, there are several early warning signs and risk factors indicating the serious risk of atrocity crimes in the region.

Among others, the Republika Srpska entity administration is said to have intensified efforts to erode and undermine the authority of the formal State Government and state-level institutions, including by passing legislation that openly challenges the jurisdiction of the Constitutional Court in Bosnia and Herzegovina and other central bodies. The judicial system is under acute strain. Systematic political interference in judicial matters severely impacts the fair administration of justice, and war crimes prosecutions have slowed to a near halt.

Recent months have also seen emerging trends in nationalist rhetoric leading to the normalisation of denial of the 1995 Srebrenica genocide in the region. Education systems, political elites, and media outlets are said to exacerbate ethno-nationalist narratives, creating fertile ground for hate-based violence, which is a classic precursor to dehumanisation, precipitating international crimes. Hate crimes against Bosniak returnees to Republika Srpska are on the rise. Furthermore, the militarisation of Republika Srpska police forces—including training with Russian operatives—raises concerns about unlawful paramilitary formations.

These developments collectively are extremely concerning and create conditions that exacerbate the risk of mass atrocity crimes.

Marking the 30th anniversary of the Srebrenica genocide requires us to consider the concerning developments in the region and ensure that they do not materialize into yet another wave of atrocity crimes.