There is still too much enthusiasm about the price of Bitcoin

Yesterday, the prezzo di Bitcoin for a moment had returned to 106,500$. Today, however, it is back around 105,500$. 

Probably yesterday a small excess of enthusiasm was formed, which today has partially dissipated. 

Price of Bitcoin and the Stock Markets 

The key to understanding the dynamics of these price movements is likely to be found in the expectations regarding the Dollar Index (DXY).

Saturday, with the traditional exchanges closed for the weekend, the price of Bitcoin was fluctuating around $105,000.

It should be remembered that by now when the traditional stock markets are closed for the weekend, the price of BTC tends to move little, because often its movement is influenced by the ETFs and the Dollar Index, as well as sometimes the price of gold.

Nevertheless, yesterday BTC started to move upwards, even though it was Sunday and the traditional exchanges were closed. 

It is possible that yesterday’s movement, which already started on Saturday afternoon, was linked precisely to the expectations related to the reopening of the Dollar Index after the weekend. 

The underlying dynamic of the price of Bitcoin

The underlying dynamics behind these movements are two. 

The first, and most important, is the inverse correlation between the trend of Bitcoin’s price and the trend of the Dollar Index in the medium term. 

The second, on the other hand, is linked to the political and social situation in the USA. 

In fact, starting from Saturday, there have been clashes between protesters and law enforcement in Los Angeles, which quickly escalated into actual scenes of civil war. 

President Trump has threatened to send the army, and the crypto markets, with traditional exchanges closed, have started to think that the Dollar Index could open sharply lower today.

Therefore, between Saturday and Sunday, the crypto markets probably started to price in a strong decline of the Dollar Index on Bitcoin, which, however, did not arrive. 

The “delusione” 

The fact is that the clashes on Saturday and Sunday in Los Angeles fortunately did not have significant consequences. 

Initially, these were limited clashes that did not spread throughout the city, as many had feared. 

Secondly, their media impact has somehow also been reduced, thanks in part to the intervention of the Democratic candidate in the last presidential elections, Kamala Harris, who wrote on X that a potential escalation could lead to chaos, although she also stated her support for the protests. 

La mia dichiarazione su ciò che sta accadendo a Los Angeles. pic.twitter.com/rujs8mrVPK

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) 8 giugno 2025

And so today, at the reopening of the traditional exchanges, the Dollar Index did indeed fall, but very slightly, much less than the crypto markets seemed to expect yesterday. 

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Lateralization

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Expanding the analysis to last week as well, it is noted that after the decline on May 29, a phase of dynamic lateralization of the price of Bitcoin seems to have begun in a range between $103,000 and $106,000, with some breaches. 

To tell the truth, on June 5th, the downward breach had also taken it below $101,000, but it lasted only a few hours and was quickly recovered. 

In the same period, the Dollar Index continued to oscillate around 99 points, with only a few timid attempts to break upwards or downwards. 

At this moment, there are both analysts who believe it might break through downward, and others who consider an upward breakthrough more likely. 

It should be emphasized that it has actually been moving sideways around this threshold for almost two months, albeit in a decidedly dynamic way. It is precisely this unusual dynamism that probably leads many analysts to believe that it is ready to resume falling, or rising. 

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The problems of the USA

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At this moment, it seems that the key to understanding the price movements of Bitcoin is precisely the situation in the USA. 

The most important financial indicator to monitor is probably the interest rate of the 10-year US government bonds (US10Y), which, however, has been fluctuating around 4.5% for almost a month without direction. 

Note that at the beginning of April it had dropped to 4%, but subsequently it recorded a sharp rise that within a week brought it right to 4.5%. 

To this must be added that until 2022 in recent years it had never exceeded 3.3%, whereas starting from September of that year it began a run that led it the following year to almost reach 5%. 

That run was due, simply, to the increase in interest rates by the American central bank, but since the Fed started to lower the rates, in September of last year, US10Y instead of falling has risen, from 3.8% back then to the current 4.5%.

This scenario leads to a capital flight from the US markets, resulting in a loss of strength for the dollar, a decrease in the Dollar Index, and an appreciation of Bitcoin.